Passive smoke raises heart risk
Bans on smoking in public places have had a bigger impact on preventing heart attacks than ever expected, data shows.
Smoking bans cut the number of heart attacks in Europe and North America by up to a third, two studies report.
This "heart gain" is far greater than both originally anticipated and the 10% figure recently quoted by England's Department of Health.
The studies appear in two leading journals - Circulation and the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Heart attacks in the UK alone affect an estimated 275,000 people and kill 146,000 each year.
Big impact
Earlier this month it was announced that heart attack rates fell by about 10% in England in the year after the ban on smoking in public places was introduced in July 2007 - which is more than originally anticipated.
But the latest work, based on the results of numerous different studies collectively involving millions of people, indicated that smoking bans have reduced heart attack rates by as much as 26% per year.
If you are a smoker, the single biggest thing you can do to avoid a heart attack is to give up, which could also protect the heart health of friends and family
Ellen Mason of the British Heart Foundation
Second-hand smoke is thought to increase the chances of a heart attack by making the blood more prone to clotting, reducing levels of beneficial "good" cholesterol, and raising the risk of dangerous heart rhythms.
Dr James Lightwood, of the University of California at San Francisco, led the Circulation study that pooled together 13 separate analyses.
His team found that heart attack rates across Europe and North America started to drop immediately following implementation of anti-smoking laws, reaching 17% after one year, then continuing to decline over time, with a 36% drop three years after enacting the restrictions.
Dr Lightwood said: "While we obviously won't bring heart attack rates to zero, these findings give us evidence that in the short-to-medium-term, smoking bans will prevent a lot of heart attacks.
"This study adds to the already strong evidence that second-hand smoke causes heart attacks, and that passing 100% smoke-free laws in all workplaces and public places is something we can do to protect the public."
Ellen Mason, of the British Heart Foundation, said: "These studies add to the growing evidence that a ban on smoking in public places seems to have a positive impact on heart attack rates, which is clearly good news for our nation's heart health.
"The statistics also show how quickly the benefits can be felt after a smoking ban is implemented and indicate how dangerous second-hand smoke can be to the heart.
"If you are a smoker, the single biggest thing you can do to avoid a heart attack is to give up, which could also protect the heart health of friends and family."
Latest figures show at least 70,000 lives have been saved by NHS Stop Smoking Services in the 10 years since they were established in England.
Showing posts with label trend_description. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trend_description. Show all posts
6/6/09
speaking_ water polution
Water. We won’t live without it. Water is life and pollution is putting that at risk.
Water pollution is a enormous issue globally and is thought to be the leading cause of deaths and disease daily.
I always was under the impression that there are only one type of pollution, but the fact is there is three types of water pollution.
Point source pollution - containments enter a waterway through a discrete transportation such as a pipe or ditch (includes sewage treatment plants, factories or a city storm drain).
Non-Point source pollution - diffuse contamination that doesn’t come from a single source. NPS pollution is a small collective of infectivity from a large area.
Examples of this type of NPS is nutrient runoff in storm water from “sheet flow” over agricultural or a forest. Contaminated storm water washed of parking lots, roads and highways (urban runoff) is also falls under this category.
Groundwater- a spill of chemical contaminate on soil, located from water bodies that may contaminate the aquifers below.
An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock or unconcluded materials (sand, gravel, silt or clay) from which ground water can be removed by a water well.
To keep the point source pollution under regulation the Clean Water Act established in 1972. The law mandates the Untied States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to publish and enforce waste water standards.
Water pollution is a enormous issue globally and is thought to be the leading cause of deaths and disease daily.
I always was under the impression that there are only one type of pollution, but the fact is there is three types of water pollution.
Point source pollution - containments enter a waterway through a discrete transportation such as a pipe or ditch (includes sewage treatment plants, factories or a city storm drain).
Non-Point source pollution - diffuse contamination that doesn’t come from a single source. NPS pollution is a small collective of infectivity from a large area.
Examples of this type of NPS is nutrient runoff in storm water from “sheet flow” over agricultural or a forest. Contaminated storm water washed of parking lots, roads and highways (urban runoff) is also falls under this category.
Groundwater- a spill of chemical contaminate on soil, located from water bodies that may contaminate the aquifers below.
An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock or unconcluded materials (sand, gravel, silt or clay) from which ground water can be removed by a water well.
To keep the point source pollution under regulation the Clean Water Act established in 1972. The law mandates the Untied States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to publish and enforce waste water standards.
5/21/09
Markets fall as growth hopes fade
The FTSE has fallen and sterling weakened
Markets worldwide have fallen after Federal Reserve minutes showed the central bank has lowered its forecast for US growth.
Japan's Nikkei index ended nearly 1% lower while the FTSE 100 fell 2.1%, Germany's Dax shed 1.5% and France's Cac declined 1.4% in morning trade.
UK shares were also hit after ratings agency Standard & Poor's revised the UK's outlook to negative.
The agency cited rising public debt, which hit a record in April.
Figures on Thursday revealed that public borrowing hit a new high of £8.46bn in April compared to £1.84bn in the same month last year.
Standard & Poor's said UK debt could be close to 100% of gross domestic product, and remain at that level in the medium term.
"There are concerns finally coming through about where the underlying growth is going to come from," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, investment director at Seven Investment Management.
"We need a growing level of demand. There's a certain amount of restocking happening, and unfortunately the market has been taking that as a sign of a recovery, which it is not," he said.
'Downbeat'
Meanwhile there was more pessimism about the US economy.
On Wednesday the Fed said it expected the economy would contract between 1.3% and 2% this year.
Earlier in the year, the bank predicted the economy could contract between 0.5% and 1.3%.
It also warned that US unemployment could reach 10%.
"Minutes of the last meeting painted a downbeat outlook for global economies and the financial sector, suggesting that any feelings among traders that the worst was behind us could prove premature," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index.
"This combination of news over the last 24 hours has resulted in a predictable knee-jerk sell off - the question from here is whether it is the start of a more sustained slide to correct the impressive gains seen since mid-March," he added.
Falling sterling
New data from the UK led to a sharp reversal in the value of pound and dollar, after sterling had reached a new high against the greenback.
Following the downgrade by Standard & Poor's, sterling fell 3 cents to a low of $1.5514, from its highest in more than six months of $1.5817.
The pound also weakened against the euro, which was worth 88.69p.
Earlier sterling had risen after minutes from the Federal Reserve revealed the bank considered adding to money supplies, easing concerns over dollar funding.
"The Fed said exactly what the market wanted to hear so it could sell the dollar, although it's too early to say whether its a decisive trend that will hurt the dollar," one portfolio manager at a Japanese firm said.
Markets worldwide have fallen after Federal Reserve minutes showed the central bank has lowered its forecast for US growth.
Japan's Nikkei index ended nearly 1% lower while the FTSE 100 fell 2.1%, Germany's Dax shed 1.5% and France's Cac declined 1.4% in morning trade.
UK shares were also hit after ratings agency Standard & Poor's revised the UK's outlook to negative.
The agency cited rising public debt, which hit a record in April.
Figures on Thursday revealed that public borrowing hit a new high of £8.46bn in April compared to £1.84bn in the same month last year.
Standard & Poor's said UK debt could be close to 100% of gross domestic product, and remain at that level in the medium term.
"There are concerns finally coming through about where the underlying growth is going to come from," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, investment director at Seven Investment Management.
"We need a growing level of demand. There's a certain amount of restocking happening, and unfortunately the market has been taking that as a sign of a recovery, which it is not," he said.
'Downbeat'
Meanwhile there was more pessimism about the US economy.
On Wednesday the Fed said it expected the economy would contract between 1.3% and 2% this year.
Earlier in the year, the bank predicted the economy could contract between 0.5% and 1.3%.
It also warned that US unemployment could reach 10%.
"Minutes of the last meeting painted a downbeat outlook for global economies and the financial sector, suggesting that any feelings among traders that the worst was behind us could prove premature," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index.
"This combination of news over the last 24 hours has resulted in a predictable knee-jerk sell off - the question from here is whether it is the start of a more sustained slide to correct the impressive gains seen since mid-March," he added.
Falling sterling
New data from the UK led to a sharp reversal in the value of pound and dollar, after sterling had reached a new high against the greenback.
Following the downgrade by Standard & Poor's, sterling fell 3 cents to a low of $1.5514, from its highest in more than six months of $1.5817.
The pound also weakened against the euro, which was worth 88.69p.
Earlier sterling had risen after minutes from the Federal Reserve revealed the bank considered adding to money supplies, easing concerns over dollar funding.
"The Fed said exactly what the market wanted to hear so it could sell the dollar, although it's too early to say whether its a decisive trend that will hurt the dollar," one portfolio manager at a Japanese firm said.
Oil prices rise to six-month high
Oil prices have almost doubled since January
Oil prices have hit six-month highs, breaking through $62 a barrel after data showed a fall in US oil supplies for a second straight week.
US light crude rose to $62.04 a barrel, while London Brent climbed to $60.59.
US crude slipped below $60 on Tuesday, dragged lower by official data showing a record fall in the number of new homes built in the US. Analysts said the fall in US oil inventories could indicate an increase in demand for oil.
Crude stockpiles dropped by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended May 15, according to US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Petrol inventories dropped by 4.3 million barrels - a bigger decline than forecast.
"Week over week, the report is very bullish," said Phil Flynn of Alaron trading in Chicago.
Oil prices have risen from $50 a barrel over the last three weeks, as optimism about the state of the world economy has grown.
And it has jumped from $32 levels seen in January, though remains well below the record high of $147 touched last July.
Oil prices have hit six-month highs, breaking through $62 a barrel after data showed a fall in US oil supplies for a second straight week.
US light crude rose to $62.04 a barrel, while London Brent climbed to $60.59.
US crude slipped below $60 on Tuesday, dragged lower by official data showing a record fall in the number of new homes built in the US. Analysts said the fall in US oil inventories could indicate an increase in demand for oil.
Crude stockpiles dropped by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended May 15, according to US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Petrol inventories dropped by 4.3 million barrels - a bigger decline than forecast.
"Week over week, the report is very bullish," said Phil Flynn of Alaron trading in Chicago.
Oil prices have risen from $50 a barrel over the last three weeks, as optimism about the state of the world economy has grown.
And it has jumped from $32 levels seen in January, though remains well below the record high of $147 touched last July.
US economic outlook 'improving'
The Fed said action already taken should help boost economic activity
The US Federal Reserve says it is seeing "tentative evidence" the US recession is easing despite cutting its economic growth forecast.
The Fed says it expects the economy will shrink between 1.3% and 2% this year. It had earlier said the economy could contract between 0.5% and 1.3%.
It also warned that US unemployment could reach 10%.
But the pace of economic decline was beginning to ease, the Fed said in the minutes of its meeting on 28-29 April.
"Participants agreed that the information received since the March meeting provided some tentative evidence that the pace of contraction in real economic activity was starting to diminish," the minutes showed.
They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about
Doug Roberts, ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
They also said that financial markets had strengthened and there was anecdotal evidence of a pick-up in household and business confidence.
Christopher Low, chief economist at FT Financial in New York, said the revision to the economic growth forecast reflected the magnitude of the decline in the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by an annualised rate of 6.1%.
"The tone of the minutes is a little more optimistic, and the forecasts are a little more pessimistic," he said.
At the April meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its current low range of between zero and 0.25%.
The Fed's decision to cut its growth forecast tempered recent investor confidence that the economy was beginning to recover from the financial crisis.
US stocks reversed early gains to close lower.
"They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
The Fed also left open the possibility of increasing its purchases of mortgage-related and government debt to boost lending and spur recovery. In March, the central bank announced a $1.2 trillion (£843bn) programme to get credit flowing.
The US Federal Reserve says it is seeing "tentative evidence" the US recession is easing despite cutting its economic growth forecast.
The Fed says it expects the economy will shrink between 1.3% and 2% this year. It had earlier said the economy could contract between 0.5% and 1.3%.
It also warned that US unemployment could reach 10%.
But the pace of economic decline was beginning to ease, the Fed said in the minutes of its meeting on 28-29 April.
"Participants agreed that the information received since the March meeting provided some tentative evidence that the pace of contraction in real economic activity was starting to diminish," the minutes showed.
They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about
Doug Roberts, ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
They also said that financial markets had strengthened and there was anecdotal evidence of a pick-up in household and business confidence.
Christopher Low, chief economist at FT Financial in New York, said the revision to the economic growth forecast reflected the magnitude of the decline in the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by an annualised rate of 6.1%.
"The tone of the minutes is a little more optimistic, and the forecasts are a little more pessimistic," he said.
At the April meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its current low range of between zero and 0.25%.
The Fed's decision to cut its growth forecast tempered recent investor confidence that the economy was beginning to recover from the financial crisis.
US stocks reversed early gains to close lower.
"They're saying the recovery itself may not be as robust as what people are talking about," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
The Fed also left open the possibility of increasing its purchases of mortgage-related and government debt to boost lending and spur recovery. In March, the central bank announced a $1.2 trillion (£843bn) programme to get credit flowing.
Japan's economy in record plunge
Japan's exports have been hit by a collapse in demand
Japan's economy during the first three months of 2009 shrank at its quickest pace since records began, as exports slumped, officials figures have shown.
Output in the world's second largest economy contracted by 4% during the period, or by 15.2% on an annual basis.
Japan's economy, which depends heavily on exports, has been hit hard by the global downturn.
But economists predict a modest growth in the coming months, after a small rise in production in March.
The figures from the Cabinet Office show that this is the fourth quarterly fall in gross domestic product (GDP) in a row, after a 3.8% contraction between October and December 2008.
'Weakness spreading'
The BBC's Roland Buerk in Tokyo says people around the world are buying fewer of the cars and electronic gadgets that Japan is renowned for.
In the first quarter of this year, Japanese exports declined by 26%.
"Weakness in the corporate sector is gradually spreading to households," Prime Minister Taro Aso said during a budget hearing to Parliament.
"This is a very serious situation, so we need to respond appropriately."
Investment in factories and equipment dropped by 10.4% in the first quarter, a sign that firms are reducing their outlay. Consumer spending fell by 1.1% during the same period.
"The savings rate has gone up and that has worsened the severity of the recession," said Richard Jerram, head economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.
"It seems the public has basically panicked about job security to an an extent that hasn't happened in previous cycles," he added.
The latest contraction is the biggest since records began in 1955.
Japan's economy during the first three months of 2009 shrank at its quickest pace since records began, as exports slumped, officials figures have shown.
Output in the world's second largest economy contracted by 4% during the period, or by 15.2% on an annual basis.
Japan's economy, which depends heavily on exports, has been hit hard by the global downturn.
But economists predict a modest growth in the coming months, after a small rise in production in March.
The figures from the Cabinet Office show that this is the fourth quarterly fall in gross domestic product (GDP) in a row, after a 3.8% contraction between October and December 2008.
'Weakness spreading'
The BBC's Roland Buerk in Tokyo says people around the world are buying fewer of the cars and electronic gadgets that Japan is renowned for.
In the first quarter of this year, Japanese exports declined by 26%.
"Weakness in the corporate sector is gradually spreading to households," Prime Minister Taro Aso said during a budget hearing to Parliament.
"This is a very serious situation, so we need to respond appropriately."
Investment in factories and equipment dropped by 10.4% in the first quarter, a sign that firms are reducing their outlay. Consumer spending fell by 1.1% during the same period.
"The savings rate has gone up and that has worsened the severity of the recession," said Richard Jerram, head economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.
"It seems the public has basically panicked about job security to an an extent that hasn't happened in previous cycles," he added.
The latest contraction is the biggest since records began in 1955.
5/15/09
Eurozone economies contract 2.5%
The economies of the 16 countries that make up the eurozone declined by 2.5% in the first three months of 2009, the EU's statistics agency Eurostat said.
Analysts had forecast a drop of only 2%. A sharp fall in German exports was a key factor in the decline.
The German economy suffered its largest contraction since reunification, falling 3.8% in the first quarter.
Eurostat also said that consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained steady at 0.6% in April.
GDP in the eurozone fell 4.6% on a year-on-year basis.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country.
GDP also fell 2.5% in the wider EU. About 60% of the UK's exports go to the 27 countries in the EU.
'Uncertainty shock'
The record decline in German GDP was led by falls in exports and investments, the Statistics Office said.
Year-on-year the German economy shrank by 6.7%.
The German government has predicted the economy will shrink 6% in 2009.
That is a more downbeat forecast than the European Commission's.
The Commission expects Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to contract 5.4% this year. It predicts a contraction of 4% across the eurozone.
The severity of the contraction surprised economists.
"The figures came in a bit worse than even we had expected and are significantly worse than the consensus," said Joerg Kraemer from Commerzbank.
"In the first quarter, the German economy fell victim to the 'uncertainty shock', which has gripped the world economy since the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
The fourth quarter of 2008 had previously been the worst on record, with GDP falling by a revised 2.2%.
Record deficit
On Thursday, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck admitted the German government would announce record budget deficits for 2009 and 2010.
GERMAN ECONOMY
Europe's largest economy
Exports of about 66bn euros (£59bn)
Unemployment rate of 8.6% (March)
Mr Steinbrueck said the deficit - the difference between a government's spending and tax take - would exceed 50bn euros (£45bn) this year and rise to 90bn euros next year.
The current record is 40bn euros set in 1996.
Germany unveiled a 50bn euro economic stimulus package in January and has spent heavily on bank bail-outs.
Mr Steinbrueck's forecasts mean that Germany is likely to miss the EU's target for eurozone countries to restrict their deficits to within 3% of their GDP.
Shrinking economies
Also on Friday, provisional data showed the French economy contracted 1.2% in the first quarter, in line with forecasts.
EUROZONE v EU
The 16 eurozone countries are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
The European Union is made up of those countries in the eurozone plus: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the UK
The fall in French GDP, reported by the statistics office Insee, was smaller than the 1.5% drop seen in the previous quarter.
In a statement, the Economy Ministry said it expected the French economy to contract by 3% in 2009.
Meanwhile Italy's GDP declined 2.4% in the first quarter - the largest fall since records began in 1980, statistics agency ISTAT said.
On Thursday, the National Statistics Institute in Spain said the Spanish economy suffered its largest contraction in 50 years. GDP fell 1.8% in the first quarter.
Analysts had forecast a drop of only 2%. A sharp fall in German exports was a key factor in the decline.
The German economy suffered its largest contraction since reunification, falling 3.8% in the first quarter.
Eurostat also said that consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained steady at 0.6% in April.
GDP in the eurozone fell 4.6% on a year-on-year basis.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country.
GDP also fell 2.5% in the wider EU. About 60% of the UK's exports go to the 27 countries in the EU.
'Uncertainty shock'
The record decline in German GDP was led by falls in exports and investments, the Statistics Office said.
Year-on-year the German economy shrank by 6.7%.
The German government has predicted the economy will shrink 6% in 2009.
That is a more downbeat forecast than the European Commission's.
The Commission expects Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to contract 5.4% this year. It predicts a contraction of 4% across the eurozone.
The severity of the contraction surprised economists.
"The figures came in a bit worse than even we had expected and are significantly worse than the consensus," said Joerg Kraemer from Commerzbank.
"In the first quarter, the German economy fell victim to the 'uncertainty shock', which has gripped the world economy since the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
The fourth quarter of 2008 had previously been the worst on record, with GDP falling by a revised 2.2%.
Record deficit
On Thursday, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck admitted the German government would announce record budget deficits for 2009 and 2010.
GERMAN ECONOMY
Europe's largest economy
Exports of about 66bn euros (£59bn)
Unemployment rate of 8.6% (March)
Mr Steinbrueck said the deficit - the difference between a government's spending and tax take - would exceed 50bn euros (£45bn) this year and rise to 90bn euros next year.
The current record is 40bn euros set in 1996.
Germany unveiled a 50bn euro economic stimulus package in January and has spent heavily on bank bail-outs.
Mr Steinbrueck's forecasts mean that Germany is likely to miss the EU's target for eurozone countries to restrict their deficits to within 3% of their GDP.
Shrinking economies
Also on Friday, provisional data showed the French economy contracted 1.2% in the first quarter, in line with forecasts.
EUROZONE v EU
The 16 eurozone countries are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
The European Union is made up of those countries in the eurozone plus: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the UK
The fall in French GDP, reported by the statistics office Insee, was smaller than the 1.5% drop seen in the previous quarter.
In a statement, the Economy Ministry said it expected the French economy to contract by 3% in 2009.
Meanwhile Italy's GDP declined 2.4% in the first quarter - the largest fall since records began in 1980, statistics agency ISTAT said.
On Thursday, the National Statistics Institute in Spain said the Spanish economy suffered its largest contraction in 50 years. GDP fell 1.8% in the first quarter.
Chrysler to close a quarter of its dealers
Chrysler to close 25% of dealers
US carmaker Chrysler has told a bankruptcy court that it plans to close about one quarter of its dealerships. Chrysler said it wants to shut down 789 out of its current 3,200 dealers.
Chrysler filed for bankruptcy protection in April, allowing it to carry on trading while protected from its creditors.
At the time, it warned some dealerships would close. A spokeswoman said the company would be notifying its dealers before commenting publicly.
The carmaker said the sales at many of its dealers were too low.
Just over half of the dealers account for about 90% of the company's US sales, it added.
'In or out'
"In addition, as suburbs grew and the modern interstate system continued to evolve, long-standing dealerships no longer were in the best or growing locations," the company said in its filing.
"Many rural locations also served a diminishing population of potential consumers. Some dealership facilities became outdated. Other locations faced declining traffic count and declining populations."
As a result, the troubled carmaker has written to those dealers it wants to close down.
"It just says whether you're in or out," said Anthony Viviano, president of the Detroit Dodge dealers association.
"Some of my fellow dealers have already called and said they're out. They got the poison letter."
Chrysler has been hit hard by a slump in sales during the economic downturn and has taken billions of dollars in aid from the US government.
This was not enough, however, to prevent the company from filing for bankruptcy protection last month.
It is currently in discussions with Italian carmaker Fiat in an attempt to secure its survival.
Car dealers from both GM and Chrysler are in Washington trying to lobby Congress to help preserve their jobs.
US carmaker Chrysler has told a bankruptcy court that it plans to close about one quarter of its dealerships. Chrysler said it wants to shut down 789 out of its current 3,200 dealers.
Chrysler filed for bankruptcy protection in April, allowing it to carry on trading while protected from its creditors.
At the time, it warned some dealerships would close. A spokeswoman said the company would be notifying its dealers before commenting publicly.
The carmaker said the sales at many of its dealers were too low.
Just over half of the dealers account for about 90% of the company's US sales, it added.
'In or out'
"In addition, as suburbs grew and the modern interstate system continued to evolve, long-standing dealerships no longer were in the best or growing locations," the company said in its filing.
"Many rural locations also served a diminishing population of potential consumers. Some dealership facilities became outdated. Other locations faced declining traffic count and declining populations."
As a result, the troubled carmaker has written to those dealers it wants to close down.
"It just says whether you're in or out," said Anthony Viviano, president of the Detroit Dodge dealers association.
"Some of my fellow dealers have already called and said they're out. They got the poison letter."
Chrysler has been hit hard by a slump in sales during the economic downturn and has taken billions of dollars in aid from the US government.
This was not enough, however, to prevent the company from filing for bankruptcy protection last month.
It is currently in discussions with Italian carmaker Fiat in an attempt to secure its survival.
Car dealers from both GM and Chrysler are in Washington trying to lobby Congress to help preserve their jobs.
4/29/09
How to fight overpopulation in Africa?
How to Fight Overpopulation and Fear in Africa
Monday, September 25, 2006; A20
Like many articles on sub-Saharan Africa, the Sept. 18 editorial "Another Green Revolution?" ignored a key factor that contributes to the hunger and poverty afflicting so many in that region: overpopulation. The number of malnourished people there has skyrocketed from 88 million in 1970 to more than 200 million now. In this same period, the region's population has more than doubled to 750 million.
With nations such as Ethiopia and Niger projected to double in population in the next 30 years, significant progress in reducing hunger will remain elusive unless more resources are devoted to family planning.
In much of the region, lack of access to contraceptives results in high rates of unintended pregnancies and larger than desired family size.
As a December report on Africa from the Council on Foreign Relations concluded: "[A]ll the programs the United States supports on food security, employment, empowerment of women, achieving universal primary education, and economic growth may well falter if serious attention is not given once again to population."
TOD PRESTON
Senior Adviser
Population Action International
Washington
·
In "For Darfur Women, Survival Means Leaving Camp, Risking Rape" [news story, Sept. 16], Craig Timberg told the story of an 18-year-old Darfuri girl who was raped while collecting firewood. The reporter rightly highlighted a tragic and all too common occurrence worldwide. Every day, millions of displaced women and girls must collect firewood for their families in dangerous conditions and are at risk of rape, assault, abduction, theft, exploitation and even death. They have no choice; displaced families often depend on firewood for cooking and to sell to support themselves.
The international community can mitigate this serious problem. The United Nations should consider providing fuel to displaced families in the early days of an emergency. National and international security forces should provide transportation to firewood collection sites or routinely patrol the routes to them. Humanitarian agencies should promote fuel-efficient technologies and alternative fuels to lessen the need for firewood. To be effective, these solutions must be coordinated by one agency, implemented in consultation with refugee women and coupled with income-generating activities.
This a recurring nightmare that we can end.
CAROLYN MAKINSON
Executive Director
Women's Commission
for Refugee Women and Children
New York
Monday, September 25, 2006; A20
Like many articles on sub-Saharan Africa, the Sept. 18 editorial "Another Green Revolution?" ignored a key factor that contributes to the hunger and poverty afflicting so many in that region: overpopulation. The number of malnourished people there has skyrocketed from 88 million in 1970 to more than 200 million now. In this same period, the region's population has more than doubled to 750 million.
With nations such as Ethiopia and Niger projected to double in population in the next 30 years, significant progress in reducing hunger will remain elusive unless more resources are devoted to family planning.
In much of the region, lack of access to contraceptives results in high rates of unintended pregnancies and larger than desired family size.
As a December report on Africa from the Council on Foreign Relations concluded: "[A]ll the programs the United States supports on food security, employment, empowerment of women, achieving universal primary education, and economic growth may well falter if serious attention is not given once again to population."
TOD PRESTON
Senior Adviser
Population Action International
Washington
·
In "For Darfur Women, Survival Means Leaving Camp, Risking Rape" [news story, Sept. 16], Craig Timberg told the story of an 18-year-old Darfuri girl who was raped while collecting firewood. The reporter rightly highlighted a tragic and all too common occurrence worldwide. Every day, millions of displaced women and girls must collect firewood for their families in dangerous conditions and are at risk of rape, assault, abduction, theft, exploitation and even death. They have no choice; displaced families often depend on firewood for cooking and to sell to support themselves.
The international community can mitigate this serious problem. The United Nations should consider providing fuel to displaced families in the early days of an emergency. National and international security forces should provide transportation to firewood collection sites or routinely patrol the routes to them. Humanitarian agencies should promote fuel-efficient technologies and alternative fuels to lessen the need for firewood. To be effective, these solutions must be coordinated by one agency, implemented in consultation with refugee women and coupled with income-generating activities.
This a recurring nightmare that we can end.
CAROLYN MAKINSON
Executive Director
Women's Commission
for Refugee Women and Children
New York
4/24/09
Orchard Losses
Orchard losses 'threaten species'
Use of few or no chemicals makes orchards good wildlife habitat
Traditional fruit orchards are vanishing from England's landscape - with serious consequences for wildlife, conservationists have warned.
The National Trust says 60% have disappeared since the 1950s, putting local varieties of apples, cherries, pears, plums and damsons under threat.
It is launching a £536,000 drive to reverse the decline of the orchards.
Their trees provide important habitats for species such as the noble chafer beetle and lesser spotted woodpecker.
The orchards - some with as few as five trees - also offer sources of pollen and nectar to bees, which are thought to be declining partly because of a lack of suitable food.
Pressure from commercial fruit growers has led many small-scale producers to develop their orchards or convert them to other uses.
The BBC's Jon Kay explored orchards at the National Trust's Killerton House in Devon:
Standing in the grounds, you can see just how much wildlife is attracted to an orchard.
Above me, in the branches of the hundreds of apple trees, I can see blackbirds, blue tits, sparrows and crows enjoying the spring sunshine.
Buzzing about on the candy pink blossom are bees and wasps, gathering the first pollen.
And, on the ground, an array of bug life scuttles past my feet - beetles, ants and spiders thrive in the ground of a wild, traditional orchard like this.
There are almost 100 different varieties of apple trees here, with some fantastic local names such as Polly White Hair and Slack My Girdle.
In Pictures: Orchards under threat
The National Trust's head of nature conservation, Dr David Bullock, said traditional orchards had been "disappearing at an alarming rate over the last 60 years".
"We are in real danger of losing these unique habitats - and the wildlife, local fruit varieties and their rich heritage - and if we don't act in some cases we will not even know what local varieties of fruit have been lost," he said.
The trust has teamed up with government advisory body Natural England to launch the project to promote local fruit varieties.
It will undertake surveys to get a better understanding of the habitat, work to improve the condition of existing orchards and create new ones, and train people how to plant, prune and propagate trees.
Kate Merry has been appointed as orchard officer to champion the cause.
She said: "We now have a real opportunity to reverse the decline of traditional orchards and recognise the important role they play in our cultural and natural heritage; if we don't act there is a real danger they will not survive the 21st Century."
Trees in traditional orchards are widely spaced and the sites are often grazed by animals such as sheep, or cut for hay.
They provide a good habitat for wildlife because they are subject to low intensity management, with few or no chemicals used, and the trees are allowed to reach a stage where they are hollowed and gnarled.
The noble chafer beetle is among the rare species under threat
The noble chafer beetle makes its home in the dead wood of older fruit trees, while the lesser spotted woodpecker can also find nesting and feeding areas in the trees.
A survey by the National Trust last year of more than 100 traditional orchards in its care turned up a number of other species in the habitat, many of them rare.
At the Killerton estate in Devon, where the new programme has been launched, surveys found insects including the orchard park beetle and the apple tree lace bag. It also proved a feeding ground for long-eared bats.
Apples - including two varieties unique to the estate - are used to make cider and chutney, with the profits used to maintain the orchards.
Poul Christensen, acting chairman of Natural England, said: "Successful orchards are worth their weight in gold, not just for the valuable contribution they make to the economy but to the subsequent enhancement of these precious wildlife habitats."
In 2007, the government prioritised orchards as habitat to protect in recognition of their importance to wildlife.
Use of few or no chemicals makes orchards good wildlife habitat
Traditional fruit orchards are vanishing from England's landscape - with serious consequences for wildlife, conservationists have warned.
The National Trust says 60% have disappeared since the 1950s, putting local varieties of apples, cherries, pears, plums and damsons under threat.
It is launching a £536,000 drive to reverse the decline of the orchards.
Their trees provide important habitats for species such as the noble chafer beetle and lesser spotted woodpecker.
The orchards - some with as few as five trees - also offer sources of pollen and nectar to bees, which are thought to be declining partly because of a lack of suitable food.
Pressure from commercial fruit growers has led many small-scale producers to develop their orchards or convert them to other uses.
The BBC's Jon Kay explored orchards at the National Trust's Killerton House in Devon:
Standing in the grounds, you can see just how much wildlife is attracted to an orchard.
Above me, in the branches of the hundreds of apple trees, I can see blackbirds, blue tits, sparrows and crows enjoying the spring sunshine.
Buzzing about on the candy pink blossom are bees and wasps, gathering the first pollen.
And, on the ground, an array of bug life scuttles past my feet - beetles, ants and spiders thrive in the ground of a wild, traditional orchard like this.
There are almost 100 different varieties of apple trees here, with some fantastic local names such as Polly White Hair and Slack My Girdle.
In Pictures: Orchards under threat
The National Trust's head of nature conservation, Dr David Bullock, said traditional orchards had been "disappearing at an alarming rate over the last 60 years".
"We are in real danger of losing these unique habitats - and the wildlife, local fruit varieties and their rich heritage - and if we don't act in some cases we will not even know what local varieties of fruit have been lost," he said.
The trust has teamed up with government advisory body Natural England to launch the project to promote local fruit varieties.
It will undertake surveys to get a better understanding of the habitat, work to improve the condition of existing orchards and create new ones, and train people how to plant, prune and propagate trees.
Kate Merry has been appointed as orchard officer to champion the cause.
She said: "We now have a real opportunity to reverse the decline of traditional orchards and recognise the important role they play in our cultural and natural heritage; if we don't act there is a real danger they will not survive the 21st Century."
Trees in traditional orchards are widely spaced and the sites are often grazed by animals such as sheep, or cut for hay.
They provide a good habitat for wildlife because they are subject to low intensity management, with few or no chemicals used, and the trees are allowed to reach a stage where they are hollowed and gnarled.
The noble chafer beetle is among the rare species under threat
The noble chafer beetle makes its home in the dead wood of older fruit trees, while the lesser spotted woodpecker can also find nesting and feeding areas in the trees.
A survey by the National Trust last year of more than 100 traditional orchards in its care turned up a number of other species in the habitat, many of them rare.
At the Killerton estate in Devon, where the new programme has been launched, surveys found insects including the orchard park beetle and the apple tree lace bag. It also proved a feeding ground for long-eared bats.
Apples - including two varieties unique to the estate - are used to make cider and chutney, with the profits used to maintain the orchards.
Poul Christensen, acting chairman of Natural England, said: "Successful orchards are worth their weight in gold, not just for the valuable contribution they make to the economy but to the subsequent enhancement of these precious wildlife habitats."
In 2007, the government prioritised orchards as habitat to protect in recognition of their importance to wildlife.
Mara Wildlife in Serious Decline
Mara wildlife in serious decline
By James Morgan
BBC News
Numbers of giraffe in the Masai Mara fell by more than 80%
Wild grazing animals in Kenya's Masai Mara National Reserve are steadily disappearing, a study has found.
Numbers of giraffe, warthog, impala, topi and hartebeest fell by 50% or more between 1979 and 2002.
The falls are linked to rapid growth of Maasai settlements around the reserve, say scientists from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
Their analysis is published in the British Journal of Zoology.
"The situation we documented paints a bleak picture and requires urgent and decisive action if we want to save this treasure from disaster," said Joseph Ogutu, the lead author of the study and a statistical ecologist at ILRI.
The carnivores are the first casualties. Lion numbers are going down
Dr Joseph Ogutu, ILRI, Kenya
"Our study offers the best evidence to date that wildlife losses in the reserve are widespread and substantial.
"These trends are clearly linked to the increase in human settlements on lands adjacent to the reserve."
The loss of grazing animals is already having an impact on lions, cheetahs, and other predators, according to researchers.
"The carnivores which depend on these wildlife are the first casualties," said Dr Ogutu.
"The numbers of lions are going down. The cheetah numbers are declining. The wild dogs in the Mara system have become extinct."
Increasing threat
The Masai Mara and the neighbouring Serengeti are world-famous for their exceptional wildlife population - including an annual migration of nearly two million wildebeest.
Lion numbers are declining in the Mara as their prey disappear The Mara itself was recently voted one of the "seven modern wonders of the world".
But during recent decades, many species have come under threat from severe droughts, increased poaching, and more intensive grazing by Maasai pastoralists in the "ranchlands" at the fringes of the reserve.
Between 1989 and 2003 the ILRI scientists carried out monthly ground counts of seven ungulate species - giraffe, hartebeest, impala, warthog, topi, waterbuck, and zebra.
They found significant declines in giraffe, impala and topi, and even greater declines in warthog and hartebeest.
The trends they observed are backed up by a separate, aerial count of wildlife undertaken between 1979 and 2002, by the Kenyan government Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing.
By 2002, numbers of giraffe in the reserve had fallen to 20% of their 1979 levels, the bulk of those losses occurring before 1989.
Topi and hartebeest in the reserve fell to less than half their 1979 levels, and almost disappeared in some of the neighbouring ranchlands where they once grazed.
Impala fell by 70% in the Mara itself, while warthog fell by more than 80%, although their numbers appeared steady since 1989.
Habitat erosion
The wildlife losses were most pronounced in the areas where human settlement has increased, even after factoring out the influence of drought.
Maasai have traditionally lived in harmony with wild animals
"Wildlife are constantly moving between the reserve and ranchlands, and they are increasingly competing for habitat with livestock," said Dr Ogutu.
"In particular, more and more people in the ranchlands are allowing their livestock to graze in the reserve - an illegal activity the impoverished Maasai resort to when faced with prolonged drought and other problems.
"The steady erosion of wildlife habitat caused by this intrusion is a key factor in the declines we observed.
"And since 2002 [when the survey ended] the number of settlements, human population and agriculture have continued to expand, so the declines can only be expected to accelerate."
Traditionally, most Maasai were semi-nomadic herders who co-existed easily with the wildlife in the region.
In the right circumstances, Maasai settlements can actually benefit populations of wild grazing animals, the researchers have found.
This is because human settlements can act as safe havens for wild grazing animals because human activity repels lions and other predators.
Safe havens
"The traditional livestock livelihoods of the Maasai, who do not consume wild animals, actually helped maintain the abundance of grazing animals in East Africa," said co-author Robin Reid, of Colorado State University in the US.
Maasai do not always benefit from the revenue the Mara wildlife tourism brings
"And where a pastoral approach to livestock grazing is still practiced, it continues to benefit wild populations."
But the growing communities of pastoralists and their exclusion from development of land policies have made their traditional way of life difficult to maintain.
Over the last few decades, many Maasai have left their traditional mud-and-wattle homesteads, known as bomas, and gravitated to more permanent settlements - a large number of which now crowd the "ranchlands" at the border of the reserve.
In just one of these ranchlands, the Koyiaki ranch, the number of bomas surged from 44 in 1950 to 368 in 2003, while huts increased from 44 to 2,735 in number. As these permanent settlements increased, the abundance of wildlife decreased significantly, researchers note.
The ILRI scientists are helping to promote schemes where Maasai living next to game reserves receive rent payments from private game lodges in return for allowing wildlife to continue to roam on their property.
In one such conservancy, at Olare Orok, the numbers of lions "increased almost immediately", said Dr Ogutu.
"We know from thousands of years of history that pastoral livestock-keeping can co-exist with East Africa's renowned concentrations of big mammals. And we should look to these pastoralists for solutions to the current conflicts," said Carlos Seré, ILRI's Director General.
"With their help and the significant tourism revenue that the Mara wildlife generates, it should be possible to invest in evidence-based approaches that can protect this region's iconic pastoral peoples as well as its wildlife populations."
By James Morgan
BBC News
Numbers of giraffe in the Masai Mara fell by more than 80%
Wild grazing animals in Kenya's Masai Mara National Reserve are steadily disappearing, a study has found.
Numbers of giraffe, warthog, impala, topi and hartebeest fell by 50% or more between 1979 and 2002.
The falls are linked to rapid growth of Maasai settlements around the reserve, say scientists from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
Their analysis is published in the British Journal of Zoology.
"The situation we documented paints a bleak picture and requires urgent and decisive action if we want to save this treasure from disaster," said Joseph Ogutu, the lead author of the study and a statistical ecologist at ILRI.
The carnivores are the first casualties. Lion numbers are going down
Dr Joseph Ogutu, ILRI, Kenya
"Our study offers the best evidence to date that wildlife losses in the reserve are widespread and substantial.
"These trends are clearly linked to the increase in human settlements on lands adjacent to the reserve."
The loss of grazing animals is already having an impact on lions, cheetahs, and other predators, according to researchers.
"The carnivores which depend on these wildlife are the first casualties," said Dr Ogutu.
"The numbers of lions are going down. The cheetah numbers are declining. The wild dogs in the Mara system have become extinct."
Increasing threat
The Masai Mara and the neighbouring Serengeti are world-famous for their exceptional wildlife population - including an annual migration of nearly two million wildebeest.
Lion numbers are declining in the Mara as their prey disappear The Mara itself was recently voted one of the "seven modern wonders of the world".
But during recent decades, many species have come under threat from severe droughts, increased poaching, and more intensive grazing by Maasai pastoralists in the "ranchlands" at the fringes of the reserve.
Between 1989 and 2003 the ILRI scientists carried out monthly ground counts of seven ungulate species - giraffe, hartebeest, impala, warthog, topi, waterbuck, and zebra.
They found significant declines in giraffe, impala and topi, and even greater declines in warthog and hartebeest.
The trends they observed are backed up by a separate, aerial count of wildlife undertaken between 1979 and 2002, by the Kenyan government Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing.
By 2002, numbers of giraffe in the reserve had fallen to 20% of their 1979 levels, the bulk of those losses occurring before 1989.
Topi and hartebeest in the reserve fell to less than half their 1979 levels, and almost disappeared in some of the neighbouring ranchlands where they once grazed.
Impala fell by 70% in the Mara itself, while warthog fell by more than 80%, although their numbers appeared steady since 1989.
Habitat erosion
The wildlife losses were most pronounced in the areas where human settlement has increased, even after factoring out the influence of drought.
Maasai have traditionally lived in harmony with wild animals
"Wildlife are constantly moving between the reserve and ranchlands, and they are increasingly competing for habitat with livestock," said Dr Ogutu.
"In particular, more and more people in the ranchlands are allowing their livestock to graze in the reserve - an illegal activity the impoverished Maasai resort to when faced with prolonged drought and other problems.
"The steady erosion of wildlife habitat caused by this intrusion is a key factor in the declines we observed.
"And since 2002 [when the survey ended] the number of settlements, human population and agriculture have continued to expand, so the declines can only be expected to accelerate."
Traditionally, most Maasai were semi-nomadic herders who co-existed easily with the wildlife in the region.
In the right circumstances, Maasai settlements can actually benefit populations of wild grazing animals, the researchers have found.
This is because human settlements can act as safe havens for wild grazing animals because human activity repels lions and other predators.
Safe havens
"The traditional livestock livelihoods of the Maasai, who do not consume wild animals, actually helped maintain the abundance of grazing animals in East Africa," said co-author Robin Reid, of Colorado State University in the US.
Maasai do not always benefit from the revenue the Mara wildlife tourism brings
"And where a pastoral approach to livestock grazing is still practiced, it continues to benefit wild populations."
But the growing communities of pastoralists and their exclusion from development of land policies have made their traditional way of life difficult to maintain.
Over the last few decades, many Maasai have left their traditional mud-and-wattle homesteads, known as bomas, and gravitated to more permanent settlements - a large number of which now crowd the "ranchlands" at the border of the reserve.
In just one of these ranchlands, the Koyiaki ranch, the number of bomas surged from 44 in 1950 to 368 in 2003, while huts increased from 44 to 2,735 in number. As these permanent settlements increased, the abundance of wildlife decreased significantly, researchers note.
The ILRI scientists are helping to promote schemes where Maasai living next to game reserves receive rent payments from private game lodges in return for allowing wildlife to continue to roam on their property.
In one such conservancy, at Olare Orok, the numbers of lions "increased almost immediately", said Dr Ogutu.
"We know from thousands of years of history that pastoral livestock-keeping can co-exist with East Africa's renowned concentrations of big mammals. And we should look to these pastoralists for solutions to the current conflicts," said Carlos Seré, ILRI's Director General.
"With their help and the significant tourism revenue that the Mara wildlife generates, it should be possible to invest in evidence-based approaches that can protect this region's iconic pastoral peoples as well as its wildlife populations."
4/23/09
Deeper Recession Ahead
'Deeper' recession ahead says IMF
By Steve Schifferes
Economics reporter, BBC News
The global economy is set to decline by 1.3% in 2009, in the first global recession since World War II, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.
In January, the IMF had predicted world output would increase by 0.5% in 2009.
It now projects that the UK will see its economy shrink by 4.1% in 2009, and by a further 0.4% in 2010.
But other major economies are predicted to shrink even more, with Germany declining by 5.6%, Japan by 6.2%, and Italy by 4.4% in 2009.
The prospects for the advanced economies are not much brighter in 2010, with an overall forecast of zero growth.
The IMF says this represents "by far the deepest post-World War II recession" with an actual decline in output in countries making up 75% of the world economy.
Currently, output is falling by an "unprecedented" 7.5% annual rate in the rich countries in the last quarter of 2008, and the IMF expects the same rate of decline in the first quarter of this year.
Only a recovery in developing and emerging market countries will propel the world economy back into positive growth in 2010, albeit at a relatively weak level of 1.9%.
The prospects for world trade are even gloomier, with the IMF now forecasting world trade volumes to decline by 11% in 2009, and barely grow at all in 2010.
After 60 years as the engine of world growth, the sharp fall in trade is now hitting many of the leading exporting nations, particularly in Asia.
Gloomy UK
The IMF says that "the recession is expected to be... quite severe in the United Kingdom, which is being hit by the end of the boom in real estate and financial services".
ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST 2009
UK: -4.1%
US: -2.8%
Germany: -5.6%
France: -3.0%
Japan: -6.2% source: IMF
It is predicting that UK unemployment will rise to 9.2% by the end of 2010, compared to 6.7% at the moment.
And it is warning that the UK budget deficit will rise to 11% of GDP, "reflecting mainly automatic stabilisers and asset-price related revenue shortfalls rather than discretionary stimulus".
The UK is also facing the cost of paying for the banking bail-outs, which the IMF estimated in an earlier report at 9.4% of GDP, or £130bn, after correcting an earlier figure of £200bn.
Financial problems
At the heart of the crisis is the continuing overhang of losses in the financial sector, which the IMF now estimates at $4tn, four times higher than it projected just one year ago.
And it warns that the current outlook is "exceptionally uncertain, with risks still weighting on the downside."
It says the main risk is that "policies may be insufficient to arrest the negative feedback between deteriorating financial conditions and weakening economies in the face of limited public support for policy actions."
Among the risks are that rising household and corporate debt cause further falls in asset prices and losses by financial institutions.
And it says that any recovery will be slower than in the past.
There will be a smaller financial sector, with financing harder to come by than in the past, especially for developing countries, which will cramp their growth.
And rich countries will face the burden of reducing their budget deficits which have soared during the crisis, at a time when their ageing populations means they will have lower tax revenues.
In addition, households may be reluctant to resume their previous spending habits, as saving rates have risen sharply in the US and the UK.
The IMF says it is important to take urgent action to shore up the banks, and to continue with short-term fiscal stimulus plans, in order to shorten the length of the recession.
A selection of your comments may be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below
Vocabulary:
Pay attention to the vocabulary for trend, number, time expressions etc. Reading this should help you pretty much in writing task 1, IELTS
By Steve Schifferes
Economics reporter, BBC News
The global economy is set to decline by 1.3% in 2009, in the first global recession since World War II, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says.
In January, the IMF had predicted world output would increase by 0.5% in 2009.
It now projects that the UK will see its economy shrink by 4.1% in 2009, and by a further 0.4% in 2010.
But other major economies are predicted to shrink even more, with Germany declining by 5.6%, Japan by 6.2%, and Italy by 4.4% in 2009.
The prospects for the advanced economies are not much brighter in 2010, with an overall forecast of zero growth.
The IMF says this represents "by far the deepest post-World War II recession" with an actual decline in output in countries making up 75% of the world economy.
Currently, output is falling by an "unprecedented" 7.5% annual rate in the rich countries in the last quarter of 2008, and the IMF expects the same rate of decline in the first quarter of this year.
Only a recovery in developing and emerging market countries will propel the world economy back into positive growth in 2010, albeit at a relatively weak level of 1.9%.
The prospects for world trade are even gloomier, with the IMF now forecasting world trade volumes to decline by 11% in 2009, and barely grow at all in 2010.
After 60 years as the engine of world growth, the sharp fall in trade is now hitting many of the leading exporting nations, particularly in Asia.
Gloomy UK
The IMF says that "the recession is expected to be... quite severe in the United Kingdom, which is being hit by the end of the boom in real estate and financial services".
ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST 2009
UK: -4.1%
US: -2.8%
Germany: -5.6%
France: -3.0%
Japan: -6.2% source: IMF
It is predicting that UK unemployment will rise to 9.2% by the end of 2010, compared to 6.7% at the moment.
And it is warning that the UK budget deficit will rise to 11% of GDP, "reflecting mainly automatic stabilisers and asset-price related revenue shortfalls rather than discretionary stimulus".
The UK is also facing the cost of paying for the banking bail-outs, which the IMF estimated in an earlier report at 9.4% of GDP, or £130bn, after correcting an earlier figure of £200bn.
Financial problems
At the heart of the crisis is the continuing overhang of losses in the financial sector, which the IMF now estimates at $4tn, four times higher than it projected just one year ago.
And it warns that the current outlook is "exceptionally uncertain, with risks still weighting on the downside."
It says the main risk is that "policies may be insufficient to arrest the negative feedback between deteriorating financial conditions and weakening economies in the face of limited public support for policy actions."
Among the risks are that rising household and corporate debt cause further falls in asset prices and losses by financial institutions.
And it says that any recovery will be slower than in the past.
There will be a smaller financial sector, with financing harder to come by than in the past, especially for developing countries, which will cramp their growth.
And rich countries will face the burden of reducing their budget deficits which have soared during the crisis, at a time when their ageing populations means they will have lower tax revenues.
In addition, households may be reluctant to resume their previous spending habits, as saving rates have risen sharply in the US and the UK.
The IMF says it is important to take urgent action to shore up the banks, and to continue with short-term fiscal stimulus plans, in order to shorten the length of the recession.
A selection of your comments may be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below
Vocabulary:
Pay attention to the vocabulary for trend, number, time expressions etc. Reading this should help you pretty much in writing task 1, IELTS
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